Analysis of Regional Climate Change Predictions on Goddard Space Flight Center

EarthzineClimate, DEVELOP Virtual Poster Session, Original

Cropped image from the INVASIVE SPECIES FORECASTING Analysis of regional climate change predictions and the potential implications for the sustainability of forest resources at Goddard Space Flight Center project

Team location: Goddard Space Flight Center


Rachel Moore (Goddard Center Lead)

Christine Suss

Ammar Zaidi

Dr. Molly Brown, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (Science Advisor)

Dr. Lahouari Bounou, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (Science Advisor)

Dr. John Schnase, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (Science Advisor)

Abstract: In the summer of 2010, a DEVELOP team used NASA’s Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS) to create a predictive habitat suitability map for WLBG. This map showed where WLBG was most likely to spread, knowledge which could help natural resource managers hone their survey efforts for early detection of new invasions. The ISFS performs a stepwise logistic regression statistical analysis, utilizing satellite data products to obtain information about relevant environmental predictors. The team also produced a second map product using an alternate model MaxEnt, which performed a maximum entropy statistical analysis across the same set of satellite data layers. At the end of the term, it was determined that the MaxEnt approach was better suited for the needs of the MD DNR.

The maps produced in the Summer of 2010 were based on present day climate conditions. It is predicted that in the coming decades the climate in the mid-Atlantic regions, as well as across the globe, will change. This project aims to predict whether climate change will results in a shift in habitat suitability for the WLBG. The MaxEnt statistical model will be used to analyze a set of present day satellite data layers in combination with predicted future climate datasets. We will focus on three main future predictors: temperature, precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index.

The end goal of this project is to create a series of predicted habitat suitability maps, which show the potential shift in habitat suitability for the WLBG, based on predicted climate change scenarios. If time permits, the team will perform model runs using several different climate change scenarios. These maps will help the MD DNR plan for the long term management of WLBG.

Download the poster PDF here.

Video transcript available here.