Team Location: Goddard Space Flight Center
Authors: Melissa Oguamanam, Paul Skym, Harpreet Narang
Science Advisors/Mentors: Frederick Policelli, Dr. Dimitar Ouzonov, Elizabeth Creamer, Maura Tokay, Dr. Dan Slayback, Huan Wu, John David
Past Authors/Contributors: Scott Cook
Abstract: Flooding has been common along the Musselshell and Missouri Rivers located in the Northwestern region of the United States. For example, the city of Roundup, Montana, had a record high crest with 14.78 feet in 2011; the next highest being 12.89 feet which was recorded in 1975 (NOAA, 2012). However, severity of flooding has been difficult to predict. With the goal of accurately forecasting floods, the DEVELOP team ran a fully distributed hydrological model using the University of Oklahoma’s Coupled Routing Excess STorage (CREST) 2.0 Model, incorporating various input variables, such as rainfall, 250 m resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM), flow accumulation map (FAM), flow direction map (DDM), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and observed stream flow rate (Robs) to compare results with USGS in-situ stream gauge data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Flood Extent Maps. The purpose was to simulate, train, and calibrate the model for a specific region and learn the physics behind the CREST model. Discoveries were made on how the model behaves in certain conditions, including the hot and humid summer months in comparison with the cool and dry winter months within the spatial extent of the Musselshell and Missouri Rivers. The current project focused on data preparation, modeling, and results to contribute to discovering practical usage of the CREST 2.0 model to assist NOAA in operational forecasting.
Video transcript available here.